Are we on the Edge?

Is the precipice closer than we think?

Introduction

Once again, Jeff Childers hits the nail on the head in his Substack entry today titled, "☕️ IMPLAUSIBLE DENIABILITY ☙ Monday, February 12, 2024 ☙ C&C NEWS 🦠". In his most recent report, Childers looks into what some might consider a series of random events or the result of industrial incompetency. By carefully analyzing various data points and global news stories, he uncovers a pattern that indicates a more deliberate and covert form of geopolitical “sizing up” of the opponent.

Jeff Childers is a well-known lawyer/journalist who runs C&C News. He is known for his in-depth analysis of global events and his ability to bring to light important issues that are often ignored by mainstream media. With his legal background and analytical skills, he is able to dissect complex issues with clarity and insight. In his latest piece, he explores a series of industrial "accidents" that have occurred across the globe and suggests that these may be covert actions by world powers in response to each other's actions.

If you are going to subscribe to any other Subtstack, go subscribe to Jeff’s. I’m not being paid or receiving a referral fee to say that. His latest piece, "IMPLAUSIBLE DENIABILITY," serves as a critical reminder of the complexity and depth of international relations, where actions and events are rarely as they appear on the surface.

My thoughts on Jeff’s hypothesis:

Jeff Childers' analysis presents a theory that the series of mysterious industrial accidents, particularly fires and explosions at oil refineries in the U.S., Russia, and Iran, are not random but may be indicative of covert, proportional retaliatory actions among these countries. Childers suggests that these incidents, often reported as accidents or attributed to drone attacks, follow a pattern of tit-for-tat responses that match in timing and scale. He points out that these events tend to occur in pairs, with an incident in one country quickly followed by a similar incident in another, suggesting a form of silent retaliation that avoids direct military confrontation and significant civilian casualties.

I asked Chat GPT-4 to utilize its capabilities in game theory to see what may come next.

Here is Chat GPT-4’s answer:

We analyze this situation by considering the strategic interactions among the involved parties. Game theory suggests that in a situation of strategic interdependence, like the one described, each player (in this case, the U.S., Russia, and Iran) makes decisions based on the expected moves of the other players. In a repeated game scenario, where interactions occur multiple times, strategies such as tit-for-tat become stable as they promote a balance of retaliation that avoids escalation into more overt conflict.

Given Childers' observations, the next "move" on the chessboard would likely follow the established pattern of proportional response. If a new, mysterious industrial accident occurs in one of these countries, we might expect a similar incident to occur in one of the others within a short timeframe. This pattern suggests a continued preference for covert operations and deniable actions that signal capability and intent without crossing thresholds that would necessitate open conflict or significantly harm civilians. (Italics mine)

Moreover, the analysis implies that the involved countries are engaged in a delicate balance of power, where each is aware of the other's capabilities and is willing to engage in these silent retaliations to assert their position without escalating to a full-scale war. This situation creates a tense but stable (for how long?) equilibrium where each player's move is carefully calculated to maintain the status quo while avoiding actions that could lead to uncontrolled escalation.

In terms of game theory, this scenario could be likened to a repeated game of Chicken, where each side periodically tests the resolve of the others through these covert actions, but all sides are careful to avoid the mutual destruction that would come from a more serious confrontation. The strategic goal for each player is to avoid being perceived as weak while also not provoking a more dangerous escalation, maintaining a precarious balance that reflects their ongoing geopolitical tensions.

So, if Jeff Childers is onto something, and Chat GPT-4 isn't just spitting liberal, woke, digital gibberish, we're essentially in the midst of a global version of the classic backseat brawl. You know, the one—where you and your siblings vie for the title of Ultimate Stealth Ninja, each trying to land the last slap, poke, or "accidental" elbow jab, all under the radar of parental oversight. The one that ends with the stern threat of the car being turned around after anger flares, tears flow, and blood is spilled.

In this high-stakes game of geopolitical "I win,” the goal is to be the last one to sneak in a punch without getting caught, ensuring that the cycle of silent infliction of pain and sidelong glares continues ad infinitum. Ah, the joys of sibling diplomacy—truly, a masterclass in the art of plausible deniability (It wasn’t me - she started it!) and the fine line between peace and total war. Except in the case Childers presents, we aren’t siblings - we’re enemies.

So what do we do? For those of us who have zero, and I mean zero, faith in the Federal Government’s ability to do anything about our current situation, as well as the fact that some of us live in states that prefer socialism to freedom, it is up to us, Citizens of the United States of America, to prepare. No one is coming to save us. The President doesn’t know his own name, the Secretary of Defense is back in the hospital for his mysterious intestinal issues, the borders are a sieve, our three letter agencies are actively working against us, and the military’s morale is at the lowest point that I can remember in my lifetime. Using a boxing analogy once more, we are “up against the ropes.”

It’s time for the communities to rise up.

I’m involved in a local patriot meetup group that is slowly but surely looking to develop networks of local resources in case we desperately need one another in the near future.

Here are some of the things we discuss at our gatherings:

1. Community Preparedness

- Emergency Preparedness: Ensure that your network has up-to-date emergency plans that are inclusive and consider the needs of all its members. This includes having supplies, knowing evacuation routes, and understanding how to communicate during emergencies.

- Community Networks: Strengthen local networks and support systems. Communities that are closely knit can respond more effectively to crises. This can involve organizing local preparedness workshops or participating in community response teams.

2. Advocacy and Engagement

- Civic Engagement: Participate in the democratic process. This includes voting, communicating with elected officials about your concerns, and participating in public forums. Engaged citizens can influence policy and encourage more transparent and accountable governance.

3. Personal and Financial Resilience

- Financial Preparedness: Diversify investments and prepare for economic fluctuations. Economic tensions often accompany geopolitical escalations.

- Skills Development: Invest in learning new skills, particularly those that can be useful in a variety of scenarios, such as first aid, basic survival skills, homesteading, foraging, and conflict resolution.

4. Mental Health and Well-being

- Stress Management and Holistic medical care: Recognize the impact of global tensions on personal well-being. Develop strategies for managing stress and anxiety and support community mental, physical, and health initiatives.

The above list isn’t exhaustive, but it’s a good start.

The Bible's book of Genesis tells us about Joseph, who had seven years to prepare Egypt for an upcoming famine. He worked hard to ensure that the nation would not face starvation when the famine arrived. I don’t know if we have seven years or seven days or if we don’t have to think about it at all. However, my gut says that we need to act now, as time may be very short. I pray we’ll never need the networks we develop other than for a return to the beauty of the community. However, each time I participate in another strategy session, I feel as though I’m doing all I can…just in case.

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Have a great day! Stay sharp. Pray. Be ready.

Ty